Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
71 0x7142…e23e other 153 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,470 (+1%) realized +$1,470 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate23%35W / 118L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$1,434per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$9
14 days+$36
30 days+$280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$438
politics 34% −$76
sports 20% +$1,104
economics 4% −$8
tech 1% −$2
culture 1% −$13
world 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 22% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 43 +12.9% +2.1% 23% 14% -9.1%
≤90d 110 +0.1% -9.4% 15% 9% -9.6%
all 153 +9.4% -1.0% 23% 16% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 16% -8.9%
10% -10.5% 16% -17.6%
15% -19.1% 16% -25.6%
20% -27.0% 15% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,703) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$8 · ×8.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,470
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses35 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)153 / 153
History coverage124d
Avg bet$1,434
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 153 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $246 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,073 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $2,681 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,841 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $757 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 13 $224 +$3 +1%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $2,415 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $5,318 −$6 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2,134 −$2 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $78 +$60 +76%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $3,420 −$4 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $76 +$53 +70%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $736 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $7,737 −$8 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,709 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $626 −$1 -0%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 02 $48 +$30 +62%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $81 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 02 $697 +$1 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,960 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $103 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $1,860 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 26 $1,160 −$1 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 26 $1,036 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,303 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $2,795 −$4 -0%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) May 25 $55 +$62 +114%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 23 $46 +$64 +140%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $75 +$70 +93%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 22 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $2,703 −$3 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 10 $1,652 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,646 −$2 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $1,650 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,456 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $6,046 −$7 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $1,409 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $3,069 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $246 4m
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $246 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $252 3h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $253 5h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $856 46h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $858 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $857 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $858 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $755 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $757 5d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $714 6d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $715 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $653 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $654 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $719 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $720 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $786 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $787 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $652 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $653 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $653 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $654 8d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $819 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $214 9d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $820 9d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $715 10d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $716 10d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $776 10d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $777 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 562 history records