Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:30:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7141…8345 other 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,635 (-6%) realized −$8,669 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%54W / 85L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,075per market
Trades / day36.3pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 89d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$17,440
crypto 2% −$259
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +55.0% +40.2% 33% 33% -3.7%
≤30d 28 -11.4% -19.9% 43% 39% -15.5%
≤90d 139 +44.0% +30.3% 39% 34% -19.9%
all 139 +44.0% +30.3% 39% 34% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +30.3% 34% -19.9%
10% +17.8% 25% -27.6%
15% ← realistic here +6.4% 22% -34.6%
20% -4.0% 20% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$1,171) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +101% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
17.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$620 vs −$602 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized−$8,669
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses54 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage89d ⚠
Avg bet$1,075
Trades / day36.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 80¢ 94¢ $206 $240 +$34 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $785 −$45 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $640 +$134 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $227 −$94 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $361 −$215 -60%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $948 −$102 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $26 +$146 +556%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $209 +$35 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $210 +$111 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $280 −$184 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $251 +$29 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $649 +$52 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $412 −$156 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $66 −$63 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $448 +$75 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $189 −$141 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $181 +$74 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $80 −$15 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1,114 −$85 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $196 +$107 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $159 −$60 -38%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $715 −$194 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $198 +$60 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $320 −$318 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $183 +$22 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $41 −$18 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $16 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 20 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 20 $411 −$388 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 20 $625 −$549 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 20 $215 −$87 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 20 $377 −$365 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 20 $295 −$291 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 20 $460 +$556 +121%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $333 +$30 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 20 $238 +$878 +369%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $296 +$36 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 16 $35 −$35 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $30 +$5 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $307 −$63 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $808 −$64 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $156 −$33 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $3,259 −$3,113 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $1,325 −$1,037 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $2,040 +$103 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $152 +$10 +7%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $3,522 −$2,846 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $2,239 +$1,902 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $46 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $24 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $24 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $32 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $81 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $39 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $148 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 9h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 9h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $70 9h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 9h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 9h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 9h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 9h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 9h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 9h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $135 10h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 10h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $55 10h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $105 11h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $0 11h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $45 11h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $143 11h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $44 11h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 11h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $257 11h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $216 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $54 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $140 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.86 · official $239.86 (match) · 3500 history records