Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:47:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x713e…15b8 crypto 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$360 (+16%) realized +$360 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$370
7 days+$370
14 days+$370
30 days+$344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 88% +$387
crypto 12% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -43.2% -48.7% 33% 33% +6.9%
≤30d 11 -38.5% -44.4% 36% 27% +5.3%
≤90d 33 -36.7% -42.7% 30% 18% +2.8%
all 33 -36.7% -42.7% 30% 18% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.7% 18% +2.8%
10% -48.2% 12% -7.0%
15% -53.2% 12% -16.0%
20% -57.8% 12% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$5 · ×8.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.66 per $1 lost it wins $3.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$360
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage44d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $2,020 +$387 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 30 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11AM ET May 29 $11 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 29 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 27 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 18 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 18 $16 −$8 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9AM ET May 18 $12 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10AM ET May 17 $27 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 16 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 13 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 13 $7 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9AM ET May 13 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET May 12 $21 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9AM ET May 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10AM ET May 11 $11 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 11 $11 +$20 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 09 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 09 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 09 $5 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $1,208 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 82¢ $1,007 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9AM ET SELL Up 0¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 39h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 81¢ $1,200 21d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 67¢ $1,013 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $8 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $13 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $10 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $8 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $4 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $4 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $2 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records