Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:40:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x713c…38ae crypto 510 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,120 (-3%) realized −$5,120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate80%408W / 102L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$367per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$291
7 days+$291
14 days+$291
30 days−$3,484
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6,704
sports 0% −$234
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -1.9% -11.2% 82% 49% -8.1%
≤30d 290 -5.9% -14.9% 82% 30% -12.2%
≤90d 510 -5.3% -14.3% 80% 37% -12.9%
all 510 -5.3% -14.3% 80% 37% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 37% -12.9%
10% -22.5% 19% -21.2%
15% -30.0% 8% -28.8%
20% -36.8% 4% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$502) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$270 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses408 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)510 / 510
History coverage82d
Avg bet$367
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 510 Trades
no open positions (76 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $510 +$181 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $507 +$112 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $502 +$25 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $502 +$30 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $501 +$15 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $501 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $505 +$77 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $503 +$52 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $502 +$27 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $504 +$54 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $502 +$34 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 25 $502 +$28 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $505 +$71 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $506 +$95 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $502 +$31 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $306 +$115 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 25 $506 +$90 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 25 $505 +$71 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 25 $406 +$106 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $518 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $603 +$36 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 25 $1,220 +$27 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $608 −$608 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $509 +$163 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $504 +$64 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $303 −$300 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 25 $726 +$793 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $506 −$500 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $507 +$101 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 25 $404 +$47 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $611 +$201 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $202 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $201 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $204 +$88 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $92 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $81 −$7 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $70 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $61 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $61 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $41 +$18 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $471 −$471 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $302 +$31 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $504 +$63 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $510 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $507 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $502 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $502 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $501 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $501 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $505 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $503 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $502 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $504 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $502 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $502 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $505 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $506 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $502 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $506 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $505 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $518 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $502 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1452 history records