Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:19:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x713b…f43c other 163 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,737 (-16%) realized −$5,757 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate48%78W / 84L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$457
7 days+$207
14 days+$212
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$5,006
sports 7% −$752
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +34.7% +21.9% 55% 55% +7.8%
≤30d 18 +12.9% +2.1% 50% 44% -8.3%
≤90d 68 -9.2% -17.9% 49% 34% -10.4%
all 162 +1.0% -8.6% 48% 31% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 31% -23.7%
10% -17.3% 27% -31.0%
15% -25.3% 21% -37.7%
20% -32.6% 19% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +9% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$172 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$5,757
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses78 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)162 / 163
History coverage235d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Team Falcons 66¢ 100¢ $40 $60 +$20 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $32 +$18 +55%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $36 +$34 +93%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $123 −$121 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $11 −$10 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $395 −$395 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $21 +$14 +65%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $11 +$24 +216%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $231 +$148 +64%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $182 +$518 +285%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $82 +$5 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $513 −$26 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $227 +$36 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 27 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $148 −$146 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 27 $73 −$72 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $130 +$170 +131%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $1,054 +$170 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 06 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 05 $1,116 +$84 +8%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 03 $229 −$211 -92%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 03 $24 $0 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 May 03 $16 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $317 +$183 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $768 +$432 +56%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $290 −$290 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $457 +$608 +133%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $595 −$546 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $624 +$377 +60%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $542 −$446 -82%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $23 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Apr 19 $11 +$7 +66%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $15 −$1 -4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 18 $26 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Apr 18 $12 +$8 +65%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 17 $9 −$1 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $564 +$231 +41%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 14 $21 −$1 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $265 −$257 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 14 $369 +$41 +11%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 10 $30 +$29 +97%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $686 −$362 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $202 −$191 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $30 −$10 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 06 $33 −$3 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 04 $563 +$941 +167%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $317 −$276 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $32 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $16 26h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $21 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $21 29h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $11 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 53¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $22 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $36 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $41 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $45 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $231 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $20 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $11 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $103 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $79 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $333 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $56 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $87 12d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $18 12d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 12d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 12d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 12d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $37 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.97 · official $59.97 (match) · 1346 history records