Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:48:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
71 0x7138…9836 crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$18 (+29%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$9
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +24.2% +12.3% 43% 43% +6.7%
≤30d 30 +23.8% +12.0% 47% 43% +6.8%
≤90d 30 +23.8% +12.0% 47% 43% +6.8%
all 30 +23.8% +12.0% 47% 43% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.0% 43% +6.8%
10% +1.3% 43% -3.5%
15% -8.5% 40% -12.8%
20% -17.5% 40% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$4 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$4 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records