Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:03:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7138…8c89 sports 149 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$19,379 (-17%) realized +$4,315 · open −$2,590
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +127% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +68% what you keep after slip
Net edge+68%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate92%11W / 1L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$786per market
Trades / day3012.0pace
Fees−$521est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$63,314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,315
7 days+$4,315
14 days+$4,315
30 days+$4,315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$1,966
sports 28% −$85
crypto 21% −$640
world 0% +$485
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+105.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +126.6% +105.0% 92% 83% +6.9%
≤30d 12 +126.6% +105.0% 92% 83% +6.9%
≤90d 12 +126.6% +105.0% 92% 83% +6.9%
all 12 +126.6% +105.0% 92% 83% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3012.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +105.0% 83% +6.9%
10% +85.4% 33% -3.3%
15% ← realistic here +67.5% 25% -12.7%
20% +51.1% 25% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +127% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +229% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
20.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$452 vs −$662 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.52 per $1 lost it wins $7.52
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$63,314
Realized+$4,315
Unrealized−$2,590
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses11 / 1
Est. fees paid−$521
Open positions372
Markets (closed)12 / 149
History coverage1d
Avg bet$786
Trades / day3012.0
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 372 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,824 $1,837 +$13 (+1%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? No 83¢ 84¢ $1,413 $1,429 +$16 (+1%)
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) France 100¢ 99¢ $1,345 $1,341 −$4 (-0%)
Netherlands leading at halftime? No 63¢ 100¢ $649 $1,023 +$374 (+58%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 3 Ecuador? No 99¢ 99¢ $745 $746 +$1 (+0%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 72¢ 72¢ $724 $725 +$0 (+0%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 62¢ $715 $721 +$6 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $732 $720 −$11 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? No 84¢ 84¢ $720 $715 −$4 (-1%)
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) LYON 37¢ 86¢ $286 $675 +$389 (+136%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? No 85¢ 84¢ $675 $673 −$2 (-0%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Haiti 69¢ 69¢ $672 $673 +$1 (+0%)
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? No 89¢ 89¢ $669 $672 +$3 (+1%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? No 93¢ 94¢ $657 $664 +$7 (+1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 84¢ 84¢ $612 $618 +$5 (+1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 71¢ 72¢ $603 $607 +$4 (+1%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? No 85¢ 85¢ $591 $591 +$0 (+0%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 52¢ $566 $566 +$0 (+0%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner LYON 52¢ 84¢ $351 $566 +$215 (+61%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? No 93¢ 94¢ $563 $566 +$3 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 79¢ 78¢ $570 $557 −$12 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? No 76¢ 74¢ $561 $552 −$10 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $558 $549 −$9 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ 81¢ $544 $545 +$1 (+0%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $538 $534 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1,316 +$26 +2%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $2,981 +$468 +16%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,485 +$447 +13%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $60 +$693 +1150%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 14 $224 +$381 +170%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 14 $2,117 +$333 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,501 +$352 +23%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $552 +$103 +19%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $739 +$160 +22%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $7,781 +$1,529 +20%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $504 +$485 +96%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2,485 −$662 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 88¢ $7 0m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 55¢ $12 0m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 0m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 90¢ $41 0m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 90¢ $111 0m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 90¢ $37 0m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 90¢ $37 0m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 90¢ $93 0m
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 0m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 70¢ $11 0m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 70¢ $12 0m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 70¢ $10 0m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 70¢ $16 0m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 97¢ $32 0m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 88¢ $175 0m
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $27 0m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $7 0m
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? BUY No 95¢ $110 0m
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? BUY No 95¢ $19 0m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $53 0m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $34 1m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $34 1m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $54 1m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 97¢ $7 1m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 1 Ecuador? BUY No 98¢ $5 1m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 83¢ $88 1m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 83¢ $63 1m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $34 1m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $30 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63,314.37 · official $64,278.94 · 3500 history records