Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:25:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
71 0x7137…84b7 other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$14
politics 20% −$2
sports 9% +$23
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 +5.6% -4.4% 16% 5% -8.4%
≤90d 100 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 8% -9.5%
all 108 +2.3% -7.5% 11% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 8% -9.5%
10% -16.3% 8% -18.1%
15% -24.4% 8% -26.0%
20% -31.8% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×8.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 96
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)108 / 110
History coverage97d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $22 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $8 +$8 +109%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $178 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $19 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $19 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $20 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $19 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $19 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $103 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $14 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $92 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $96 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $384 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 16 $89 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $93 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $88 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $95 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $189 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $275 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $276 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $87 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $87 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $184 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $374 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $96 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $90 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $189 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $278 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $182 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $93 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $89 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $168 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $194 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $89 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $95 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $239 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $92 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $90 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 5h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 37h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 41h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 3d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 7d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 8d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 47¢ $8 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $17 9d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $17 9d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 10d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 10d
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $60 12d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 15d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 15d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 16d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 16d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 17d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 17d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 21d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 21d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 22d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 22d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 23d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $19 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.88 · official $81.88 (match) · 317 history records