Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:37:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
71 0x7134…53d6 other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$715 (+7%) realized +$1,905 · open −$1,190
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,138per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$3,039now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$47
sports 32% +$681
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +19.5% +8.1% 80% 60% +23.2%
≤30d 5 +19.5% +8.1% 80% 60% +23.2%
≤90d 5 +19.5% +8.1% 80% 60% +23.2%
all 5 +19.5% +8.1% 80% 60% +23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.1% 60% +23.2%
10% ← realistic here -2.2% 40% +11.5%
15% -11.7% 20% +0.7%
20% -20.3% 20% -9.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$481 vs −$5 · ×100.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×400.53 per $1 lost it wins $400.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$3,039
Realized+$1,905
Unrealized−$1,190
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1,138
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 86¢ 62¢ $4,180 $2,990 −$1,189 (-28%)
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $623 +$201 +32%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $819 +$1,127 +138%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $2,595 +$481 +18%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,254 +$114 +9%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $180 6m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $4,017 6m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 42¢ $0 14m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $824 15m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 42¢ $1,207 17m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 19m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 19m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $204 22m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 23m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 24m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 29m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 29m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 30m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $205 30m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 48m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 48m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 48m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 49¢ $1,021 49m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 47¢ $925 53m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND Will New Zealand win on BUY 8¢ $51 1h
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $256 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $2,396 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $902 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $247 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,039.48 · official $3,089.48 · 44 history records