Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
71 0x7133…edd9 sports 586 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+3%) realized +$35 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%264W / 300L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$64
14 days+$105
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$57
other 20% +$12
finance 2% −$10
world 2% +$15
politics 1% −$4
crypto 1% +$1
economics 0% −$5
tech 0% −$3
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +14.3% +3.4% 59% 59% +11.5%
≤30d 222 +14.7% +3.8% 52% 51% -3.9%
≤90d 434 +5.2% -4.8% 48% 48% -6.8%
all 564 +1.7% -8.0% 47% 46% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 46% -6.8%
10% -16.8% 46% -15.7%
15% -24.8% 46% -23.8%
20% -32.2% 43% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses264 / 300
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions22
Markets (closed)564 / 586
History coverage120d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 564 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 45¢ 96¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+112%)
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 62¢ 74¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+20%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 47¢ 80¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+69%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Yes 24¢ 66¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+177%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 2¢ 3¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 36¢ 36¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 25¢ 57¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+130%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027? Yes 28¢ 42¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
New pandemic in 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes 16¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Human moon landing in 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027? Yes 19¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027? Yes 24¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 294 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$7 +67%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +146%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $3 +$4 +124%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $6 +$5 +90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +119%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +48%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$4 +124%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$3 +124%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $6 +$3 +55%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 +$3 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $2 +$3 +152%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $7 +$5 +70%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $2 +$1 +57%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $1 +$1 +109%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Kasintseva vs. Lepchenko: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 11 $3 +$3 +90%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $2 +$1 +57%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $2 +$2 +101%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $3 +$3 +86%
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan Jun 10 $3 +$3 +109%
Maneiro vs. Tomljanovic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 10 $3 +$3 +93%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $3 +$3 +101%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Chris Rodesch Jun 10 $6 +$4 +62%
Nardi vs. Fearnley: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 10 $6 +$4 +76%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Quevedo vs. Vandromme: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 10 $4 −$3 -99%
Jones vs. Galfi: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 10 $4 −$3 -99%
Martincova vs. Swan: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 10 $4 −$3 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 10 $4 +$3 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 45m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $10 45m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 25¢ $2 56m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5 57m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $8 59m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 36¢ $5 7h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $8 7h
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 7h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 19h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 19h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $10 19h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $10 19h
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $1 20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 52¢ $6 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $5 21h
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 2¢ $5 24h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $10 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $3 43h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 43h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 43h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $3 43h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $2 45h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 44¢ $2 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $3 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $3 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.43 · official $98.06 (match) · 896 history records