Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:42:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

71 0x7132…da36 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$34 (-20%) realized −$34 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip

Net edge-39%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%2W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$21per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-38.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	7	-32.4%	-38.8%	29%	29%	-53.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-38.8%	29%	-53.9%
10%	-44.7%	29%	-58.4%
15%	-50.0%	29%	-62.4%
20%	-54.9%	14%	-66.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -32% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.36 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage

Net worth$100

Realized−$34

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses2 / 5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage246d

Avg bet$21

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	21¢	21¢	$100	$100	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Feb 03	$15	−$14	-98%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Feb 03	$10	+$5	+47%
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Jan 28	$6	+$14	+226%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	Jan 11	$10	−$10	-100%
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?	Jan 11	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of December 29 above $455?	Jan 02	$12	−$12	-100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25?	Oct 25	$11	−$11	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	21¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$15	145d
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?	SELL No	62¢	$20	151d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	BUY No	68¢	$10	168d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	BUY Yes	22¢	$10	168d
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?	BUY No	19¢	$6	168d
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?	BUY Yes	7¢	$4	168d
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of December 29 above $455?	BUY Yes	62¢	$12	177d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25?	BUY Yes	69¢	$11	246d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.50 · official $99.50 (match) · 10 history records