Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:25:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

71
0x7131…29cc
other · 155 markets active 5d ago
0.0score
+$255,212 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$255,363 · open −$150
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$3,427
Realized+$255,363
Unrealized−$150
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses118 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)153 / 155
History coverage264d
Avg bet$50,836
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 2 History 153 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$250
7 days+$250
14 days+$944
30 days+$8,336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 92¢ 88¢ $3,146 $3,012 −$134 (-4%)
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Yes 92¢ 88¢ $431 $415 −$16 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $49,750 +$250 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $196,484 +$694 +0%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $531 +$123 +23%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $84,595 +$1,198 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 23 $11,021 +$613 +6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 22 $1,355 −$554 -41%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 22 $75,376 +$2,451 +3%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $15,195 +$660 +4%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $37,416 +$2,901 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $132,531 +$146 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $2,636,100 +$2,696 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 09 $118,800 +$1,200 +1%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? May 09 $119,619 +$2,017 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 30 $4,975 +$5 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 27 $49,550 +$350 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 24 $70,097 +$211 +0%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? Apr 14 $8,270 +$759 +9%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $183,614 +$116 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $182,182 +$360 +0%
Will Iran strike UAE again in March? Apr 06 $3,858 +$20 +0%
Epstein client list released by June 30? Apr 02 $19 −$15 -80%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 01 $142,977 +$6,223 +4%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Mar 14 $79,920 +$80 +0%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 31? Mar 08 $426 +$24 +6%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15? Mar 08 $456 +$36 +8%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 08 $1,075,236 −$91 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $24,380 +$177 +1%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $113,668 +$6,911 +6%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 18 $1 $0 +3%
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $19,455 +$4,827 +25%
GPT-5.3 released by February 21, 2026? Feb 05 $691 +$45 +6%
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? Feb 05 $1,837 +$142 +8%
GPT-5.3 released by February 14, 2026? Feb 05 $35,805 +$1,344 +4%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Feb 05 $891 +$59 +7%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? Feb 04 $153,224 +$397 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 03 $291,743 +$9,505 +3%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 03 $65,454 +$2,868 +4%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? Feb 03 $12,505 +$641 +5%
GPT ads by March 31? Feb 02 $29 +$62 +216%
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $29 −$29 -100%
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? Jan 31 $555 +$10 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 31 $1,740 +$250 +14%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Jan 30 $49,200 +$630 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $159,061 +$6,183 +4%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 27 $9,980 +$20 +0%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Jan 27 $29,850 +$150 +0%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $10,026 +$10 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $9,370 +$230 +2%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Jan 13 $2,028 +$146 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 49% +$18,142
economics 17% +$136,288
other 17% +$57,593
politics 12% +$24,868
crypto 3% +$2,776
tech 2% +$13,818
culture 1% +$619
finance 0% −$84
sports 0% +$1,193
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $49,726 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 4d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $928 9d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $75,685 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $142 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $567 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $19,860 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $709 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $268 10d
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $653 14d
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $172 15d
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? BUY Yes 81¢ $278 15d
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $81 15d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL No 64¢ $822 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 65¢ $4,213 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 62¢ $206 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 60¢ $1,054 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL Yes 41¢ $19 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL Yes 41¢ $692 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL Yes 41¢ $80 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL Yes 41¢ $410 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL Yes 44¢ $659 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL Yes 44¢ $24 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL Yes 44¢ $97 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,936 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 9 +0.6% -9.0% 89% 11% -7.9%
≤90d 23 -2.4% -11.7% 91% 4% -9.0%
all 153 +10.9% +0.4% 77% 19% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.4% 19% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -9.2% 11% -16.9%
15% -18.0% 7% -24.9%
20% -26.1% 5% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,427.39 · official $3,427.39 (match) · 3500 history records