Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:29:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7131…b3a6 weather 399 markets active 1h ago coverage 405d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4,929 (-3%) realized −$4,136 · open −$793
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate81%310W / 74L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$470per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$14,867now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$136
7 days+$342
14 days+$3,539
30 days+$3,650
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 52% −$734
politics 30% +$91
other 11% −$5,080
world 3% +$399
sports 1% −$187
tech 1% +$291
culture 1% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 -3.5% -12.7% 92% 4% -8.9%
≤30d 280 -1.6% -10.9% 88% 11% -6.7%
≤90d 372 -4.2% -13.3% 82% 17% -10.2%
all 384 -5.4% -14.5% 81% 17% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 17% -11.9%
10% -22.6% 9% -20.3%
15% -30.1% 4% -28.0%
20% -37.0% 2% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$532) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$221 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

405d coverage
Net worth$14,867
Realized−$4,136
Unrealized−$793
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses310 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions15
Markets (closed)384 / 399
History coverage405d
Avg bet$470
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 384 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 52¢ $6,497 $7,446 +$949 (+15%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $2,666 $2,682 +$16 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,081 $1,079 −$2 (-0%)
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? Yes 72¢ 55¢ $835 $641 −$194 (-23%)
Will Michele Tafoya be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota? Yes 79¢ 88¢ $548 $610 +$62 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $575 $578 +$3 (+0%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 62¢ 59¢ $533 $507 −$26 (-5%)
Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? Yes 75¢ 66¢ $417 $371 −$47 (-11%)
Will Mark Smith be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Yes 65¢ 26¢ $785 $318 −$467 (-60%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 17? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $189 $193 +$5 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $161 $167 +$6 (+4%)
Will Jamie Davis Jr. be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 78¢ 98¢ $118 $148 +$30 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? No 97¢ 95¢ $130 $127 −$3 (-3%)
Will Dusty Johnson win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $1,125 $1 −$1,124 (-100%)
Will Kyle Sweetser be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $19 −$18 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $175 −$11 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $121 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $488 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $232 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $246 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $198 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $309 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $210 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $135 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $106 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $285 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $66 +$16 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $61 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $199 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $85 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $349 +$7 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $77 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $202 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $184 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +54%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $214 +$12 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $209 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,003 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $64 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $78 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $364 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $814 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $487 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $102 +$12 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $702 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $480 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $65 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $844 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $490 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $75 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $941 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $303 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $607 +$19 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $397 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $253 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $505 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $232 +$16 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $225 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $62 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $723 +$10 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $130 44m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,081 56m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $575 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $161 1h
Will Jamie Davis Jr. be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana SELL Yes 96¢ $76 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 91¢ $58 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 92¢ $107 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 60¢ $31 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $179 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $8 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $11 10h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $121 15h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $58 16h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $488 16h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $78 18h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $141 19h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $173 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $175 20h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 93¢ $86 20h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $74 21h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $106 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $198 23h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $210 23h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $135 23h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $285 23h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $184 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,866.99 · official $14,870.90 (match) · 1615 history records