Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:31:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
71 0x712f…0e7a crypto 920 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,457 (-16%) realized −$4,457 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate81%747W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 106d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$125
other 24% −$315
sports 4% −$290
politics 0% −$5
economics 0% −$4
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -0.3% -9.8% 81% 21% -8.6%
≤30d 252 -7.7% -16.5% 79% 15% -11.6%
≤90d 305 -8.5% -17.2% 79% 13% -12.4%
all 919 -4.5% -13.6% 81% 21% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 21% -11.8%
10% -21.9% 10% -20.2%
15% -29.4% 7% -27.9%
20% -36.3% 4% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$16 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,457
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses747 / 172
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)919 / 920
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 919 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $85 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $75 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 24 $141 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $139 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 24 $75 +$4 +5%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $51 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $33 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $39 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $38 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $33 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $67 −$34 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $65 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $63 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $63 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $63 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$14 +55%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $43 +$12 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $18 +$13 +69%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $41 +$39 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $101 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +3%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $120 −$16 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $141 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $139 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $75 14h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $49 14h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $36 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $33 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $33 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $33 21h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $39 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $38 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $35 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $35 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $33 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $67 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $65 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $63 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $63 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records