Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:05:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x712d…c0c2 other 253 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 239L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$22
14 days−$31
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$42
sports 24% −$22
politics 7% −$6
economics 7% −$7
culture 6% −$7
world 5% −$2
crypto 4% −$5
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 252 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)252 / 253
History coverage137d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $615 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $487 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $384 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $132 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $344 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $209 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $390 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $252 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $381 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $242 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $300 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $506 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $149 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $630 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $166 −$2 -1%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $212 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $136 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $387 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $431 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $456 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $486 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $237 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $65 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $497 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $217 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $157 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $806 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 04 $376 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $161 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $141 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $44 10m
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 1h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 3h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 4h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 5h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $58 7h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 9h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 11h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $58 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $58 14h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 17h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 19h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 23h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 25h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 29h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 30h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $59 32h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 33h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 36h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 38h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $59 38h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $59 40h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 41h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 42h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 45h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 46h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 47h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.09 · official $44.07 (match) · 1389 history records