Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x712b…100d crypto 186 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (410 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,926 (+7%) realized +$4,939 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate30%99W / 234L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$396per market
Trades / day410.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,521
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (410 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 233 -47.6% -52.6% 18% 11% -34.8%
≤30d 333 -33.5% -39.8% 30% 19% -23.0%
≤90d 333 -33.5% -39.8% 30% 19% -23.0%
all 333 -33.5% -39.8% 30% 19% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover410.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.8% 19% -23.0%
10% ← realistic here -45.6% 10% -30.4%
15% -50.8% 8% -37.1%
20% -55.7% 5% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$86 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,113
Realized+$4,939
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses99 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)333 / 186
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$396
Trades / day410.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Up 38¢ 30¢ $60 $47 −$13 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 162 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $297 −$297 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $274 −$274 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$149 +42518%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $145 −$145 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $199 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$27 +18727%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$31 -111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $79 −$84 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $176 −$217 -123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $112 −$142 -127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $122 −$127 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $94 −$102 -109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$37 -159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$31 -108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$45 -172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $140 −$150 -107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $196 −$236 -120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$17 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $119 −$133 -112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $161 −$343 -214%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $16 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $20 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $11 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $45 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $42 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $27 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $41 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $40 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $32 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $18 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $28 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $24 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $22 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $16 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $13 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $47 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $41 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $41 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $42 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $55 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $42 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $56 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,112.51 · official $1,116.38 (match) · 3500 history records