Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

71 0x7129…1707 crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$36 (+11%) realized +$40 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip

Net edge+15%after slip

Net WR59%break-even

Win rate73%16W / 6L

Drawdown63%max

Avg bet$13per market

Trades / day5.5pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +59%

net ROI/market (all)+19.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	+32.0%	+19.4%	73%	59%	-0.1%
≤30d	22	+32.0%	+19.4%	73%	59%	-0.1%
≤90d	22	+32.0%	+19.4%	73%	59%	-0.1%
all	22	+32.0%	+19.4%	73%	59%	-0.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+19.4%	59%	-0.1%
10%	+8.0%	50%	-9.7%
15%	-2.4%	41%	-18.4%
20%	-12.0%	32%	-26.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

19% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +32% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +23% → late +41% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.45 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$7

Realized+$40

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)73%

Wins / losses16 / 6

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)22 / 25

History coverage6d

Avg bet$13

Trades / day5.5

Drawdown63%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	Yes	48¢	48¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	11¢	3¢	$5	$1	−$4 (-76%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?	No	0¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$0 (-50%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Jun 21	$52	−$50	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Jun 21	$51	−$5	-9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Jun 21	$25	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Jun 21	$26	+$13	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Jun 21	$26	+$15	+57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Jun 21	$30	+$7	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Jun 21	$5	+$5	+97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Jun 21	$5	+$1	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Jun 21	$10	+$7	+66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Jun 21	$5	+$1	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Jun 21	$5	+$12	+228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Jun 21	$5	$0	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 21	$5	+$2	+42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Jun 21	$5	$0	+5%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	+$6	+55%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Jun 19	$5	−$1	-29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$11	−$10	-98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$11	+$29	+262%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$6	+$6	+101%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Jun 17	$4	+$1	+28%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 17	$5	−$1	-15%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$26	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$26	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$25	53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	SELL Down	41¢	$12	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	BUY Down	83¢	$25	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$25	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$25	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	62¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Up	85¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	BUY Up	85¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Up	83¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Down	93¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Up	69¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	95¢	$5	2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	48¢	$5	4h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	7h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30	BUY No	0¢	$1	30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	44h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	2d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	SELL Yes	1¢	$4	2d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	25¢	$11	2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$11	3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$6	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.64 · official $6.64 (match) · 49 history records