Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7127…5dd0 crypto 642 markets active 16h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$573 (-7%) realized −$573 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%261W / 381L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$39
14 days−$79
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$790
other 1% −$7
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -22.0% -29.4% 36% 34% -28.7%
≤30d 93 -17.8% -25.6% 38% 32% -27.8%
≤90d 112 -17.8% -25.6% 36% 31% -30.9%
all 642 -11.0% -19.5% 41% 35% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 35% -18.9%
10% -27.2% 30% -26.7%
15% -34.2% 25% -33.8%
20% -40.7% 20% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$573
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses261 / 381
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)642 / 642
History coverage181d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 642 Trades
no open positions (171 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$6 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$6 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$3 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +131%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$7 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -32%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$3 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +137%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$3 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$3 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11AM ET Jun 09 $9 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$4 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$3 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$3 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $4 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $13 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $7 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3184 history records