Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
71 0x7126…bfcb sports 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$360 (+2%) realized +$393 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%23W / 20L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$350per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Fees−$222est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$414
other 4% −$237
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +9.7% -0.7% 53% 51% -8.2%
≤30d 43 +9.7% -0.7% 53% 51% -8.2%
≤90d 43 +9.7% -0.7% 53% 51% -8.2%
all 43 +9.7% -0.7% 53% 51% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 51% -8.2%
10% -10.2% 44% -16.9%
15% -18.9% 42% -25.0%
20% -26.9% 40% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +42% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$296 vs −$329 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$393
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses23 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$222
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage5d
Avg bet$350
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) G2 62¢ 50¢ $172 $139 −$33 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $124 −$99 -80%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $141 +$131 +93%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $257 −$116 -45%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $632 −$228 -36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,225 −$1,225 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $353 −$349 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $197 +$156 +79%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $219 −$22 -10%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 14 $183 −$180 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,009 +$398 +40%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $284 −$279 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,015 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,016 +$1,183 +116%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $509 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $451 −$314 -70%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $812 +$741 +91%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $407 +$570 +140%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $456 +$316 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $175 −$172 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $610 −$602 -99%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 13 $357 +$429 +120%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $145 −$144 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $84 −$76 -91%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $317 −$311 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $278 +$522 +187%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $159 +$214 +135%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,000 −$842 -84%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) Jun 13 $470 +$336 +71%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $407 +$635 +156%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $14 −$13 -96%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $403 +$119 +29%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $204 +$378 +185%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$177 +345%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $198 +$125 +63%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5) Jun 12 $152 +$100 +66%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $112 +$21 +19%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 12 $142 +$122 +86%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $101 +$10 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $201 +$40 +20%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 +$59 +58%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $127 +$17 +14%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 12 $85 −$85 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $31 −$31 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY G2 62¢ $25 56m
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 10¢ $25 57m
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY G2 62¢ $149 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $124 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $272 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 51¢ $141 3h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $141 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $220 4h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 52¢ $220 4h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 45¢ $198 7h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 55¢ $198 7h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 58¢ $214 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $353 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $353 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $197 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $197 23h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) BUY Legacy 53¢ $183 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $1,225 24h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $1,407 24h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 44¢ $284 24h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 71¢ $1,009 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 51¢ $1,015 25h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $2,199 26h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 38¢ $509 27h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $1,016 27h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 10¢ $137 27h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 31¢ $451 28h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $1,552 28h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 51¢ $812 29h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $257 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.69 · official $138.69 (match) · 85 history records