Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:47:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
71 0x7124…f0b5 sports 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$2,538 (+8%) realized +$3,274 · open −$736
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +193% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +140% what you keep after slip
Net edge+140%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$3,337per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$279est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$5,213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$7,848
sports 37% +$9,232
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+164.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +246.2% +213.2% 75% 75% +0.6%
≤30d 5 +192.7% +164.8% 60% 60% -1.5%
≤90d 5 +192.7% +164.8% 60% 60% -1.5%
all 5 +192.7% +164.8% 60% 60% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +164.8% 60% -1.5%
10% ← realistic here +139.5% 60% -10.9%
15% +116.4% 60% -19.5%
20% +95.1% 60% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +193% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5,964 vs −$7,886 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$5,213
Realized+$3,274
Unrealized−$736
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$279
Open positions4
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage11d
Avg bet$3,337
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1,800 $1,761 −$39 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1,800 $1,755 −$45 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1,729 $1,693 −$36 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $620 $4 −$616 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $2,261 +$1,864 +82%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 21 $15,409 −$15,409 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,078 +$8,467 +785%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,486 +$7,561 +217%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,712 −$364 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,768 20m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,842 20m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,843 20m
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $206 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $432 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $4,125 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $274 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $1,986 13h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,078 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 31¢ $3,486 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $15,409 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 12¢ $1,348 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 13¢ $713 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 12¢ $287 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 18¢ $711 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,212.67 · official $5,212.67 (match) · 18 history records