Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
71 0x7124…70c1 world 315 markets active 0h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Covers last 448d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$41,054 (+7%) realized +$39,683 · open +$1,371
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate68%201W / 94L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$1,883per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$34,566now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$503
14 days+$631
30 days+$467
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 64% +$32,097
world 24% −$1,905
crypto 4% +$2,532
other 4% +$1,948
finance 3% +$650
politics 2% +$1,834
tech 0% +$82
culture 0% −$110
sports 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +8.9% -1.4% 100% 50% -3.2%
≤30d 29 -4.4% -13.5% 76% 41% -9.0%
≤90d 75 +0.5% -9.1% 80% 47% -6.4%
all 295 +2.5% -7.3% 68% 41% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 41% -3.6%
10% -16.1% 24% -12.9%
15% -24.2% 12% -21.3%
20% -31.7% 7% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$945) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$294 vs −$259 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$34,566
Realized+$39,683
Unrealized+$1,371
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses201 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions20
Markets (closed)295 / 315
History coverage448d ⚠
Avg bet$1,883
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 295 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 87¢ 80¢ $13,870 $12,880 −$990 (-7%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 70¢ 90¢ $3,911 $5,003 +$1,092 (+28%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 71¢ 80¢ $1,883 $2,113 +$230 (+12%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $1,870 $1,995 +$125 (+7%)
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $1,880 $1,947 +$67 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $1,370 $1,437 +$67 (+5%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 70¢ 88¢ $1,050 $1,312 +$262 (+25%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 86¢ 94¢ $1,121 $1,225 +$104 (+9%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 56¢ 48¢ $1,235 $1,043 −$192 (-16%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 44¢ 98¢ $465 $1,040 +$574 (+123%)
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? No 80¢ 92¢ $885 $1,018 +$133 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 93¢ $770 $926 +$156 (+20%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 81¢ 100¢ $648 $799 +$151 (+23%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $465 $499 +$34 (+7%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $455 $472 +$18 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 71¢ 73¢ $357 $365 +$8 (+2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 99¢ $244 $298 +$54 (+22%)
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? Yes 34¢ 16¢ $286 $140 −$146 (-51%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 23¢ $372 $50 −$322 (-86%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 12¢ $58 $3 −$55 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 21 $6,541 +$435 +7%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $612 +$69 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $1,305 +$195 +15%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $31,472 +$1,268 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $4,272 +$51 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 16 $882 −$412 -47%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $1,105 +$266 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $384 +$51 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 14 $828 −$600 -72%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $64 −$63 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1,051 −$903 -86%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $184 +$92 +50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $866 +$132 +15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $333 +$167 +50%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $117 −$117 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $470 +$30 +6%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $458 +$42 +9%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? Jun 01 $937 +$63 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,148 +$401 +13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $2,524 +$174 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $4,051 +$579 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 31 $1,419 +$115 +8%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $629 +$71 +11%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 31 $3,298 +$198 +6%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $254 +$36 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $774 +$226 +29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $2,964 −$312 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $5,530 −$1,805 -33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $480 +$19 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 27 $400 +$35 +9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 27 $973 +$25 +3%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $138 +$47 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $2,440 +$1,020 +42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $1,200 +$231 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $880 +$70 +8%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 22 $586 +$70 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 14 $1,769 +$127 +7%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 12 $648 +$49 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $2,790 +$609 +22%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 12 $1,250 +$48 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 12 $3,427 +$62 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 06 $465 +$35 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 05 $520 −$420 -81%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 02 $903 +$97 +11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 02 $1,403 +$197 +14%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $37,181 +$980 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $880 +$120 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $1,523 +$475 +31%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $1,407 +$231 +16%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 20 $28 −$8 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? SELL No 98¢ $98 9m
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? SELL No 98¢ $73 16m
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? SELL No 98¢ $7 38m
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 48¢ $454 5h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 48¢ $26 6h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $1,580 20h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? SELL No 95¢ $366 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? SELL No 95¢ $95 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? SELL No 95¢ $14 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? SELL No 94¢ $67 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $4,985 5d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 38¢ $25 5d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 38¢ $127 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $680 5d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $256 8d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $3 8d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 8d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 8d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 8d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $150 8d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $9 8d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $150 8d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 8d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 8d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $87 8d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 78¢ $2,340 9d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $245 9d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $11 9d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $125 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34,565.78 · official $34,565.78 (match) · 3500 history records