Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7122…8291 other 10 markets active 3d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$123 (-43%) realized −$122 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -81% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$104
sports 7% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-83.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -81.3% -83.0% 0% 0% -86.4%
≤30d 6 -81.3% -83.0% 0% 0% -86.4%
≤90d 6 -81.3% -83.0% 0% 0% -86.4%
all 6 -81.3% -83.0% 0% 0% -86.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -83.0% 0% -86.4%
10% -84.7% 0% -87.7%
15% -86.1% 0% -88.9%
20% -87.5% 0% -90.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -85% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -81% · $-wt -85% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$21 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$122
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-20%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$11 -55%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 14 $21 −$2 -9%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $19 2d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.01 · official $129.01 (match) · 21 history records