Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
71 0x7120…be41 crypto 11 markets active 4d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+49%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +27.6% +15.4% 45% 45% +22.8%
≤30d 11 +27.6% +15.4% 45% 45% +22.8%
≤90d 11 +27.6% +15.4% 45% 45% +22.8%
all 11 +27.6% +15.4% 45% 45% +22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.4% 45% +22.8%
10% ← realistic here +4.4% 36% +11.1%
15% -5.7% 36% +0.3%
20% -14.9% 36% -9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$8 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$8 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$17 +395%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$9 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $22 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records