Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:03:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7120…7c4e sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (112 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22,032 (+7%) realized +$22,032 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate41%18W / 26L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,349per market
Trades / day112.3pace
Fees−$2,992est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 31d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$10,249
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (112 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +45.7% +31.8% 75% 50% +33.3%
≤30d 43 +6.6% -3.5% 40% 30% -6.6%
≤90d 44 +6.5% -3.6% 41% 30% -6.7%
all 44 +6.5% -3.6% 41% 30% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 30% -6.7%
10% -12.8% 23% -15.6%
15% ← realistic here -21.3% 20% -23.7%
20% -29.0% 11% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$10,736) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
79.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,047 vs −$1,724 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22,032
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses18 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$2,992
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 43
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$7,349
Trades / day112.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 20 $219 −$219 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $501 +$1,086 +217%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $15,067 +$9,560 +64%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 18 $6,613 +$170 +3%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $7,110 +$202 +3%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $1,848 −$1 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $3,425 +$8,112 +237%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $7,514 +$1,357 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $21,313 +$8,543 +40%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 09 $2,024 −$184 -9%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $5,074 +$3,540 +70%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 06 $5,318 −$309 -6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $14,210 −$8,676 -61%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 06 $7,579 −$455 -6%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $1,975 −$198 -10%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $21,637 −$19,153 -88%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty Jun 04 $3,109 −$10 -0%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $10,394 −$6,030 -58%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $7,210 −$877 -12%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky May 31 $1,641 −$98 -6%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty May 31 $910 −$263 -29%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics May 31 $298 −$50 -17%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $4,405 +$732 +17%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings May 29 $2,908 +$208 +7%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 29 $19,056 −$3,520 -18%
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm May 28 $5,579 −$318 -6%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty May 28 $2,017 −$90 -4%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $2,144 −$811 -38%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 27 $6,136 −$600 -10%
PortlandFire vs. New York Liberty May 26 $4,553 +$856 +19%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $10,736 −$1,135 -11%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $15,558 +$1,305 +8%
Dallas Wings vs. New York Liberty May 25 $1,891 −$467 -25%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $6,284 −$510 -8%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Las Vegas Aces May 24 $1,961 +$782 +40%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions May 24 $14,881 −$114 -1%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $8,822 +$3,580 +41%
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks May 23 $4,505 −$490 -11%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $11,621 +$4,478 +38%
Golden State Valkyries vs. New York Liberty May 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions May 21 $11,834 −$215 -2%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $29,505 +$6,934 +24%
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm May 21 $4,316 +$3,337 +77%
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks May 21 $2,499 +$60 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $6 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $4 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $5 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $61 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $5 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $44 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $19 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $25 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $44 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $30 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $30 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $44 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $33 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $44 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $44 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $44 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $30 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $30 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $30 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $30 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $44 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $61 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $44 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $26 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $44 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $5 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $44 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $61 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 89¢ $33 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 90¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records