Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:49:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x711e…37e2 politics 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$473 (+0%) realized +$474 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate15%20W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,529per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,529now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$19
14 days−$24
30 days+$842
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$94
other 39% −$547
sports 11% +$1,099
world 3% −$5
tech 1% −$4
culture 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 38 +1.7% -8.0% 11% 8% -8.5%
≤90d 99 -9.9% -18.5% 8% 6% -9.5%
all 131 -3.1% -12.3% 15% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 11% -9.3%
10% -20.7% 11% -18.0%
15% -28.4% 10% -25.9%
20% -35.4% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,164) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$11 · ×7.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$1,529
Realized+$474
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses20 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,529
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,134 $1,134 −$1 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $396 $395 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $2,287 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $3,296 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,477 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $1,682 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,631 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,647 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $1,629 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $4,339 −$5 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $3,544 −$5 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $3,007 −$4 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,618 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,643 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 08 $1,649 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $4,141 −$5 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $5,807 −$7 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $4,492 −$6 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $78 +$34 +44%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,684 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,680 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,917 −$3 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $84 +$79 +93%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $776 +$1 +0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,060 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $1,979 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $2,489 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,041 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 27 $3,668 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $2,563 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $2,272 −$3 -0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,267 −$2 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,082 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $2,532 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,341 −$2 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $780 −$1 -0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 19 $702 +$930 +133%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,309 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,998 −$2 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,465 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,010 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $1,118 −$2 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $3,641 −$4 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,256 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $1,301 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $2,164 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $1,263 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 25 $1,188 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,135 1h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $953 3h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $954 5h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $452 6h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $452 7h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,507 46h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,510 2d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,679 2d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,682 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,629 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,631 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,645 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,647 4d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $1,627 4d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,629 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $396 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,669 7d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,671 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,639 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,641 8d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,667 8d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,669 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,616 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,618 9d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,640 10d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,643 10d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $1,646 10d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $1,649 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,671 11d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,673 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,528.99 · official $1,528.99 (match) · 480 history records