Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:35:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x711c…3892 crypto 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$180 (-19%) realized −$180 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate78%38W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$6
sports 27% −$206
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -1.4% -10.8% 88% 12% -10.3%
≤30d 43 -1.4% -10.8% 88% 12% -10.3%
≤90d 49 -5.5% -14.5% 78% 10% -30.2%
all 49 -5.5% -14.5% 78% 10% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 10% -30.2%
10% -22.7% 0% -36.9%
15% -30.1% 0% -43.0%
20% -37.0% 0% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$22 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$180
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses38 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage68d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $14 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $28 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $24 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $22 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $18 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $17 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $13 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $9 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$6 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres Apr 15 $74 −$34 -46%
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 15 $175 −$171 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros Apr 14 $2 $0 -5%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 14 $3 $0 -3%
Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals Apr 14 $3 $0 -3%
Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 14 $3 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $8 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $29 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $19 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $17 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $17 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $13 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records