Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:13:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
71 0x7118…4362 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$475 (+33%) realized +$519 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$543now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$429
7 days+$526
14 days+$526
30 days+$526
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$369
crypto 11% +$113
politics 4% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +67.3% +51.4% 100% 100% +49.9%
≤30d 6 +67.3% +51.4% 100% 100% +49.9%
≤90d 6 +67.3% +51.4% 100% 100% +49.9%
all 8 +25.6% +13.6% 75% 75% +39.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.6% 75% +39.0%
10% +2.7% 75% +25.7%
15% -7.2% 75% +13.5%
20% -16.3% 62% +2.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +66% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$31 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.38 per $1 lost it wins $8.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$543
Realized+$519
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage129d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 62¢ $587 $543 −$44 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $162 +$114 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $283 +$193 +68%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 +$31 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $160 +$91 +57%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $91 +$41 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $55 +$55 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p Feb 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $276 59m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $276 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $317 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $162 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $81 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $50 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $138 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $22 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $91 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $55 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 127d
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p SELL Yes 0¢ $0 127d
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p BUY Yes 25¢ $62 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $542.93 · official $542.93 (match) · 20 history records