Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:35:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7116…d144 sports 199 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$119 (-6%) realized −$123 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%51W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$95
14 days−$191
30 days−$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$142
other 15% −$96
politics 2% −$4
crypto 1% −$7
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -36.9% -42.9% 29% 29% -27.9%
≤30d 198 -30.2% -36.8% 26% 25% -21.2%
≤90d 198 -30.2% -36.8% 26% 25% -21.2%
all 198 -30.2% -36.8% 26% 25% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.8% 25% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here -42.9% 24% -28.8%
15% -48.4% 19% -35.7%
20% -53.5% 16% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$123
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses51 / 147
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)198 / 199
History coverage18d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 61¢ 80¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $3 +$1 +35%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $4 +$6 +158%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski Jun 16 $5 −$5 -89%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $10 −$9 -85%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -7%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $6 −$5 -78%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +77%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 15 $2 −$1 -59%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +52%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $13 −$10 -76%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
HSBC Championships, Qualification (Doubles): Frantzen/Haase vs Goranss Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $2 +$7 +354%
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $6 +$2 +26%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $6 +$5 +74%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$6 +59%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$4 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$7 +81%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $2 −$2 -87%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $6 −$2 -33%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $9 +$6 +61%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $4 −$3 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $2 +$1 +56%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $2 −$1 -81%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 1h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Tomasz Berkieta 8¢ $3 1h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan SELL Martina Trevisan 49¢ $4 1h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Tomasz Berkieta 10¢ $2 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa SELL Allura Zamarripa 46¢ $11 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Allura Zamarripa 17¢ $4 2h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Tomasz Berkieta 25¢ $3 2h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Martina Trevisan 35¢ $3 2h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski SELL Daniel Michalski 2¢ $1 2h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski BUY Daniel Michalski 16¢ $5 3h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic SELL Arthur Rinderknech 8¢ $2 3h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 51¢ $10 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 17¢ $2 18h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 18h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Texas Rangers 1¢ $0 18h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 8¢ $1 18h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Texas Rangers 7¢ $1 18h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 19h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 19h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 19h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Kansas City Royals 2¢ $0 19h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 27¢ $5 20h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY PortlandFire 5¢ $2 20h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 33¢ $3 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 20h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $8 20h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 21h
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez SELL Juan Sebastian Gomez 99¢ $5 21h
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Juan Sebastian Gomez 78¢ $4 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.30 · official $19.30 (match) · 528 history records