Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:48:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
71 0x7115…b88d world 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 543d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate54%38W / 32L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days+$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$11
sports 26% $0
other 10% +$18
economics 10% +$1
politics 4% +$14
finance 2% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -2.0% -11.3% 45% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 31 +0.2% -9.4% 45% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 43 +0.1% -9.4% 47% 2% -9.6%
all 70 +3.8% -6.1% 54% 10% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 10% -8.9%
10% -15.1% 10% -17.6%
15% -23.3% 9% -25.6%
20% -30.8% 6% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

543d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses38 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage543d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 67¢ 67¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$1 -24%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $18 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $40 +$1 +2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $15 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $38 +$2 +6%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $34 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $42 −$4 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $26 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $72 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +27%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $184 +$2 +1%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $77 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $135 +$2 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $111 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $75 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $5 $0 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $80 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $37 −$3 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $81 −$3 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $36 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $72 $0 +1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $1 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $25 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $44 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $43 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $6 $0 -3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $532 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $298 +$1 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $6 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $94 −$1 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will CTBC Flying Oyster win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? Dec 10 $0 $0 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will Napoli win the Serie A? May 24 $24 −$1 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Cal Poly vs. UC Santa Barbara Mar 21 $7 +$3 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $38 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $14 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $18 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 57¢ $41 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $40 45h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $15 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $7 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $40 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 71¢ $38 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $35 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $27 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $14 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $14 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $38 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 83¢ $42 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 67¢ $27 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $26 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.52 · official $37.52 (match) · 292 history records