Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:25:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7113…dba4 sports 1708 markets active 0h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$1,251 (-2%) realized +$280 · open −$138
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%706W / 937L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$340est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$429
7 days+$974
14 days+$1,688
30 days+$1,455
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$643
other 21% −$1
crypto 2% −$370
world 0% +$48
politics 0% −$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +36.2% +23.3% 61% 61% +28.4%
≤30d 205 +15.6% +4.6% 51% 51% +16.3%
≤90d 1066 -4.2% -13.3% 41% 41% -9.3%
all 1643 -1.4% -10.8% 43% 43% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 43% -8.9%
10% -19.3% 43% -17.6%
15% -27.1% 43% -25.6%
20% -34.3% 42% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$28 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$280
Unrealized−$138
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses706 / 937
Est. fees paid−$340
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1643 / 1708
History coverage167d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1643 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-7%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $67 $1 −$66 (-99%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-99%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Over 31¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Burnley FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Mexico vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Over 31¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Under 57¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Columbus Crew vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
UD Almería vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 3.5 Over 33¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 44¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Lille OSC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Chelsea FC vs. Arsenal WFC: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
SC Braga vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 Over 22¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Poland win on 2026-03-31? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Racing Club de Lens vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 3.5 Under 25¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $19 +$19 +101%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$58 +226%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $26 +$71 +276%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 +$57 +114%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $28 +$20 +69%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $28 −$2 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $64 +$62 +97%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $39 +$33 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $44 +$46 +103%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $46 +$42 +91%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $33 +$31 +93%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $28 −$28 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $28 −$28 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $29 +$41 +145%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $48 −$47 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $28 −$28 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $34 +$51 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $36 +$50 +139%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $14 +$59 +414%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $38 +$23 +60%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $29 −$28 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $30 +$23 +76%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $32 +$39 +123%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $73 +$98 +134%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $29 +$25 +86%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $29 −$28 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $14 −$14 -98%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Bolivia O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $21 +$23 +109%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 11 $31 +$35 +110%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $29 +$47 +165%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $50 +$34 +68%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $22 +$4 +17%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $59 +$47 +80%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $30 +$29 +97%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $25 +$43 +170%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $41 +$31 +76%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $24 +$29 +117%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $15 +$27 +173%
Netherlands vs. Poland: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $31 +$46 +149%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $39 3m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 3m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $19 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $33 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $24 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 45¢ $27 6h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $17 6h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $35 6h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $26 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 6h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $28 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $28 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $28 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $26 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $25 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 18¢ $15 6h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $126 6h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $72 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $90 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 99¢ $87 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 48¢ $44 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 51¢ $46 6h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 53¢ $39 7h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $64 14h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $33 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 22h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $26 22h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $28 22h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 31¢ $26 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.98 · official $27.62 (match) · 2774 history records