Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7109…f4c9 crypto 737 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1378 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5,818 (+411%) realized −$2,834 · open +$8,652
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -83% what you keep after slip
Net edge-83%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate1%4W / 386L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1377.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8,832now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9,208
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1378 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-80.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 390 -78.5% -80.5% 1% 1% -12.9%
≤30d 390 -78.5% -80.5% 1% 1% -12.9%
≤90d 390 -78.5% -80.5% 1% 1% -12.9%
all 390 -78.5% -80.5% 1% 1% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1377.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -80.5% 1% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -82.4% 1% -21.2%
15% -84.1% 1% -28.8%
20% -85.6% 1% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +129% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -78% · $-wt +129% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$1 · ×227.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$8,832
Realized−$2,834
Unrealized+$8,652
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses4 / 386
Open positions119
Markets (closed)390 / 737
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1377.8
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 119 History 390 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $2 $101 +$99 (+4950%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 381 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,832.38 · official $8,832.39 (match) · 3500 history records