Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:30:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
71 0x7106…1caa crypto 637 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20,057 (-30%) realized −$20,110 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%278W / 335L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day94.0pace
Fees−$196est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2,728now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$497
sports 18% +$5,533
other 6% −$631
world 3% −$128
tech 1% +$126
finance 0% +$28
politics 0% −$63
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +42.2% +28.7% 47% 43% +26.9%
≤30d 550 -1.2% -10.6% 45% 40% -8.5%
≤90d 613 +0.1% -9.4% 45% 41% -7.1%
all 613 +0.1% -9.4% 45% 41% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 41% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 37% -16.0%
15% -26.0% 31% -24.1%
20% -33.3% 24% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$72 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$2,728
Realized−$20,110
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses278 / 335
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$196
Open positions26
Markets (closed)613 / 637
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$105
Trades / day94.0
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 613 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1,000 $809 −$191 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $400 $513 +$113 (+28%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $500 $505 +$5 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $400 $458 +$58 (+15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11PM ET Down 68¢ 97¢ $70 $99 +$29 (+41%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+11%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 97¢ $40 $54 +$14 (+34%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 81¢ 80¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 44¢ $37 $44 +$7 (+18%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $28 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 92¢ 99¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+8%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No 25¢ 71¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+184%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 87¢ 85¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026? Yes 29¢ 50¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+71%)
Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026? Yes 20¢ 33¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+65%)
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by October 31, 2026? No 34¢ 63¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+86%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 44¢ 78¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+76%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by November 30, 2026? Yes 68¢ 50¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-26%)
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by July 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by August 31, 2026? Yes 52¢ 30¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by September 30, 2026? Yes 61¢ 30¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 18 $51 −$16 -31%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $51 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 18 $448 +$163 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 18 $83 −$83 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $62 −$14 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $45 −$27 -60%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $18 −$6 -36%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$303 +982%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $51 −$16 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 17 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 17 $167 −$167 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $105 +$204 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $83 +$110 +132%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 16 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $145 +$115 +80%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $62 +$304 +494%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$18 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 15 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $71 +$26 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $93 +$83 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $71 +$26 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$55 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$18 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$7 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $22 +$9 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $114 +$111 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $114 +$118 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $84 +$183 +218%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 14 $51 +$44 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $91 +$23 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $113 −$113 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $295 −$295 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $58 +$262 +450%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $8 16m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 19m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $72 24m
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 23¢ $9 29m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 29m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 31m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 81¢ $49 37m
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 23¢ $13 39m
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 23¢ $13 49m
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 48¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $37 1h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 2h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 2h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 2h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 3h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 3h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 3h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 3h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 31¢ $20 8h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 31¢ $14 9h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 9h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 9h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $37 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $83 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $300 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,728.28 · official $2,728.30 (match) · 3500 history records