Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:20:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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71 0x7105…b9bb crypto 267 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,702 (-66%) realized −$9,630 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate38%92W / 148L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day33.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$387now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$689
other 4% −$42
politics 2% −$13
world 2% $0
sports 1% −$21
tech 0% −$13
economics 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -8.2% -17.0% 35% 0% -14.8%
≤30d 55 -11.4% -19.8% 36% 9% -14.8%
≤90d 240 -12.5% -20.8% 38% 20% -14.7%
all 240 -12.5% -20.8% 38% 20% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 20% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 15% -22.9%
15% -35.3% 12% -30.3%
20% -41.7% 8% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$387
Realized−$9,630
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses92 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions27
Markets (closed)240 / 267
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$55
Trades / day33.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia? Yes 56¢ 51¢ $79 $73 −$7 (-8%)
Netflix (NFLX) Q2 operating margin 34%-36%? Yes 51¢ 38¢ $82 $61 −$21 (-25%)
Will Delta Q2 passenger load factor be between 85% and 87%? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $47 $42 −$5 (-10%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NE-02 House seat? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Will Nike be the brand of boot worn by the Golden Ball winner at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 62¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Will Sonia Backès be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia? No 83¢ 82¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? No 30¢ 28¢ $27 $25 −$3 (-9%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-28 House seat? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? No 45¢ 34¢ $17 $13 −$4 (-26%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NH-02 House seat? No 14¢ 13¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-10%)
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $41B? No 54¢ 32¢ $16 $10 −$7 (-41%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republican Party win the TX-24 House seat? Yes 66¢ 76¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+14%)
Will the Republican Party win the WI-06 House seat? No 18¢ 15¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-19%)
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting? No 32¢ 9¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-72%)
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? No 29¢ 24¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? No 71¢ 78¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz be the Democratic nominee for FL-20? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party win the OH-15 House seat? No 32¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? No 15¢ 8¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-17 House seat? No 13¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Republican Party win the MN-06 House seat? No 20¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-24 House seat? Yes 27¢ 21¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 10, 2026? Yes 20¢ 2¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? Jun 25 $35 −$3 -8%
Hotstuff FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 25 $36 −$10 -28%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? Jun 25 $26 +$2 +9%
Trump signs housing bill by end of July? Jun 25 $3 $0 -5%
Will Russia capture Myropillia by December 31? Jun 25 $3 $0 -4%
Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05? Jun 25 $20 $0 +1%
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1200? Jun 25 $15 −$3 -19%
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026? Jun 25 $19 −$5 -27%
Huddle FDV above $10M one day after launch? Jun 23 $22 −$6 -27%
Tabi FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 23 $31 −$2 -7%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $24 −$1 -6%
Will Relay launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $48 −$6 -13%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -16%
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 22 $48 +$3 +6%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 22 $149 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $886 −$121 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $225 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $899 −$32 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $1,437 −$63 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $72 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $144 −$10 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 10 $29 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $251 −$16 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 09 $605 −$11 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $583 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $139 −$86 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 09 $420 −$14 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 09 $263 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $275 −$15 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 09 $73 −$10 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $374 −$42 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $62 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 08 $86 +$14 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $58 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $101 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 08 $316 −$11 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 06 $592 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 06 $232 −$14 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 30 $75 −$29 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 30 $42 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 29 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 29 $81 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 29 $24 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 29 $36 +$9 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 29 $75 +$33 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 29 $97 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? SELL No 17¢ $2 3m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY No 24¢ $10 26m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 49m
Hotstuff FDV above $20M one day after launch? SELL Yes 33¢ $26 1h
Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caled BUY Yes 52¢ $10 1h
Will Sonia Backès be the next President of the Government of New Caled BUY No 83¢ $26 1h
Hotstuff FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 44¢ $18 1h
Hotstuff FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 1h
Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caled BUY Yes 52¢ $10 1h
Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caled BUY Yes 52¢ $10 1h
Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caled BUY Yes 52¢ $1 1h
Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caled BUY Yes 58¢ $12 1h
Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caled BUY Yes 58¢ $12 1h
Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caled BUY Yes 59¢ $24 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $15 2h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 2h
Trump signs housing bill by end of July? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 2h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 2h
Trump signs housing bill by end of July? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 2h
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $41B? BUY No 54¢ $16 4h
Will Russia capture Myropillia by December 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 5h
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $41B? SELL No 55¢ $3 5h
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $41B? BUY No 55¢ $3 5h
Will Russia capture Myropillia by December 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 5h
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1200? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 6h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $14 6h
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $14 6h
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 10, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 17h
Netflix (NFLX) Q2 operating margin 34%-36%? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 22h
Netflix (NFLX) Q2 operating margin 34%-36%? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $387.03 · official $385.97 (match) · 3500 history records