Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:29:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
70 0x70ff…aa94 other 283 markets active 2h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$699 (-11%) realized −$697 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%126W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days+$10
14 days+$33
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$686
sports 34% +$83
crypto 3% −$2
economics 1% −$31
tech 1% −$27
politics 1% +$1
finance 1% +$20
world 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +5.9% -4.2% 55% 55% -7.8%
≤30d 31 +3.8% -6.1% 52% 52% -15.9%
≤90d 63 -8.1% -16.9% 49% 49% -13.3%
all 278 -13.1% -21.3% 45% 45% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 45% -19.2%
10% -28.9% 43% -26.9%
15% -35.7% 40% -34.0%
20% -42.0% 31% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$20 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$697
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses126 / 152
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)278 / 283
History coverage528d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 278 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $45 $43 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 +$10 +44%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$16 +62%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$24 +119%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $20 +$37 +180%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 19 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$12 +40%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$31 +101%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$11 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$11 +50%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +250%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $41 +$39 +97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 07 $104 −$103 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $30 +$24 +79%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 24 $43 −$42 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $15 +$36 +238%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $48 +$41 +86%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 20 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $20 +$25 +124%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $56 +$30 +55%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $20 +$20 +97%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 18 $50 +$20 +40%
Bukayo Saka: Anytime Goalscorer May 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score May 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: Both Teams to Score May 17 $33 +$18 +54%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $25 +$28 +109%
Everton FC vs. Sunderland AFC: Both Teams to Score May 17 $11 +$9 +82%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $54 +$35 +64%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 16 $36 −$36 -98%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 16 $32 +$4 +14%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 15 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $51 +$29 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $45 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $45 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 62¢ $33 21h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $12 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $23 35h
Ecuador to win the second half? AND Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY 56¢ $20 35h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 24¢ $20 42h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $25 42h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 35¢ $20 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $25 3d
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $23 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 4d
England to win the second half? AND England leading at halftime? BUY 44¢ $21 4d
Portugal leading at halftime? AND Portugal to win the second half? BUY 40¢ $20 4d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $13 4d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $20 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $21 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $22 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $41 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $51 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 64¢ $104 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.32 · official $43.32 (match) · 510 history records