Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:40:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70fd…84ba world 123 markets active 3h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$618 (-1%) realized −$606 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$495per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$37
other 25% −$15
crypto 21% $0
economics 11% −$14
world 8% −$385
sports 7% −$185
tech 1% −$7
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 22 -14.1% -22.3% 0% 0% -10.8%
all 120 -2.7% -11.9% 6% 2% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 2% -10.5%
10% -20.4% 2% -19.0%
15% -28.1% 1% -26.9%
20% -35.1% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$604) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$10 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$606
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)120 / 123
History coverage121d
Avg bet$495
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 50¢ 60¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+21%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 50¢ 40¢ $50 $39 −$10 (-21%)
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $201 −$2 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,442 −$2 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 23 $196 −$5 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $128 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $126 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $198 −$5 -3%
BNB Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 16 $5,385 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 16 $1,256 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 16 $1,278 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $1,291 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 16 $1,399 −$3 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $604 −$8 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Apr 21 $200 $0 +0%
Oeiras 3: Greet Minnen vs Petra Marcinko Apr 21 $935 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 15 $6,983 −$8 -0%
Will Fulham FC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw? Apr 15 $160 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Raptors Apr 15 $153 −$153 -100%
Pacers vs. Trail Blazers Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Apr 15 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-07? Apr 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-03-07? Apr 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Apr 15 $1,342 $0 +0%
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16 Mar 16 $87 −$79 -90%
Claude 4.7 released by May 31? Mar 16 $37 +$10 +27%
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 16 $102 $0 -0%
Claude 4.7 released by June 30? Mar 16 $133 +$3 +2%
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 16 $326 −$45 -14%
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 16 $440 −$132 -30%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $400 −$2 -0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $3,050 −$8 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 12 $1,220 −$1 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $3,514 −$5 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10AM ET Mar 11 $1,158 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 09 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #17 Grou Mar 09 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 09 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 09 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 09 $100 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $300 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Mar 08 $100 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 08 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 08 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 08 $123 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 08 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Mar 08 $200 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs WHITEBIRD (BO3) - IZI WEX Playoffs Mar 08 $1,173 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 3? Mar 06 $1,173 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 03 $1,173 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10AM ET Mar 03 $1,173 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $99 3h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $99 3h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 3h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 76¢ $101 3h
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? SELL No 40¢ $79 26d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? BUY No 41¢ $82 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $126 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $128 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $126 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $126 26d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? SELL No 11¢ $23 26d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? BUY No 12¢ $24 26d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? SELL Yes 85¢ $170 26d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? BUY Yes 87¢ $174 26d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $112 26d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $114 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $1,255 33d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $1,276 33d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $1,288 33d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $1,396 33d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $1,291 33d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $1,256 33d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $1,399 33d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $1,278 33d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 61¢ $197 44d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 61¢ $204 44d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $936 64d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $936 64d
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16 SELL Yes 1¢ $9 95d
Claude 4.7 released by May 31? SELL No 47¢ $47 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.99 · official $105.99 (match) · 441 history records