Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
70 0x70fc…c15a other 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$258 (+1%) realized +$258 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate25%19W / 56L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$10
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$12
other 25% +$47
politics 13% −$7
economics 4% −$1
sports 3% +$228
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -5.7% -14.6% 11% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 55 +3.2% -6.6% 20% 11% -8.3%
all 75 +7.9% -2.4% 25% 15% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 15% -8.6%
10% -11.7% 15% -17.4%
15% -20.2% 13% -25.4%
20% -28.1% 13% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +19% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$2 · ×10.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.59 per $1 lost it wins $3.59
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized+$258
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses19 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage620d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $216 $216 +$0 (+0%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 53¢ 54¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $49 $0 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $76 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $76 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $79 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $133 $0 +0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $47 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $418 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 29 $70 $0 -0%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $59 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $68 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $319 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $333 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $335 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 06 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 04 $134 +$1 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $329 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $332 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $309 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $674 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $310 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 26 $316 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 25 $317 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $334 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $335 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $314 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 23 $348 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $345 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $338 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 18 $347 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $337 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $344 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $331 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $322 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $331 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $18 +$5 +29%
UIC Flames vs. California Golden Bears Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 06 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $6 2h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 28h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 29h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 44h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $216 2d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 7d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $76 8d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $76 9d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 47¢ $10 9d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $76 12d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $76 12d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 15d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 15d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 17d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 17d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $74 18d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $75 18d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $70 19d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $70 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $79 23d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $51 25d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $51 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.25 · official $222.25 (match) · 315 history records