Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70fc…4651 other 31 markets active 2d ago coverage 119d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$754 (-41%) realized −$111 · open −$643
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -89% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -90% what you keep after slip
Net edge-90%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$996now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 119d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$605
world 7% −$114
sports 2% −$33
politics 1% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-89.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 5 -88.9% -89.9% 0% 0% -94.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -89.9% 0% -94.0%
10% -90.9% 0% -94.6%
15% -91.8% 0% -95.1%
20% -92.6% 0% -95.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -89% · $-wt -93% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$22 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$996
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$643
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Open positions26
Markets (closed)5 / 31
History coverage119d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $155 $77 −$77 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $154 $77 −$77 (-50%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $123 $77 −$46 (-37%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $80 $74 −$6 (-7%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $147 $73 −$73 (-50%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $84 $63 −$21 (-25%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $69 $57 −$11 (-17%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $49 $55 +$6 (+12%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $99 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $98 $49 −$49 (-50%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $38 +$7 (+24%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $46 $37 −$9 (-19%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $36 $27 −$9 (-25%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-8%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $33 $27 −$6 (-19%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $25 −$75 (-75%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $49 $24 −$24 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $49 $24 −$24 (-50%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $12 $23 +$11 (+88%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $23 $21 −$3 (-12%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $36 $18 −$18 (-50%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $54 $14 −$41 (-75%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $22 $11 −$11 (-50%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $35 $6 −$29 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 16? Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 06 $78 −$73 -94%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 03 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 17 $7 −$4 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 36h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 36h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $70 36h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 2d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 3d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 3d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $32 4d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $43 4d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $160 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $24 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $61 4d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $67 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $17 5d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $61 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $67 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $34 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $22 6d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $100 6d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $50 7d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 7d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $100 7d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $72 7d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $36 7d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $36 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $72 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $996.44 · official $996.73 (match) · 172 history records