Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:17:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
70 0x70f9…f25b sports 1023 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,387 (+15%) realized +$5,389 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%507W / 502L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Fees−$517est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$359now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,882
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 -52.7% -57.2% 25% 23% -50.9%
≤30d 309 +3.0% -6.8% 55% 52% -3.8%
≤90d 1009 +2.6% -7.1% 50% 48% -4.7%
all 1009 +2.6% -7.1% 50% 48% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 48% -4.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 47% -13.8%
15% -24.1% 44% -22.1%
20% -31.6% 36% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$23 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$359
Realized+$5,389
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses507 / 502
Est. fees paid−$517
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1009 / 1023
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 1009 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone Alex Molcan 59¢ 60¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+2%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley Jacob Fearnley 61¢ 65¢ $48 $51 +$3 (+7%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Aleksandar Kovacevic 49¢ 50¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Elise Mertens 45¢ 50¢ $32 $35 +$4 (+11%)
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Ignacio Buse 38¢ 42¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+11%)
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Katerina Siniakova 61¢ 22¢ $78 $29 −$49 (-63%)
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Solana Sierra 52¢ 34¢ $42 $27 −$15 (-35%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Camilo Ugo Carabelli 33¢ 32¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-6%)
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Valentin Royer Valentin Royer 32¢ 38¢ $14 $16 +$3 (+19%)
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino Adrian Mannarino 45¢ 46¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Mariano Navone 47¢ 41¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-13%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar Zizou Bergs 57¢ 56¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva Tommaso Compagnucci 31¢ 29¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Liudmila Samsonova 39¢ 78¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+99%)
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Xinyu Wang 21¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $59 +$13 +23%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $1 +$1 +59%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $13 +$10 +83%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Pavel Kotov Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Foggia: Varvara Lepchenko vs Iryna Shymanovich Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Vicenza: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 18 $21 −$3 -15%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Dellien vs Valentin Royer Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Chisinau: Filip Jianu vs Franco Agamenone Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Viktorija Golubic vs Alycia Parks Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Makarska: Miriam Bulgaru vs Noma Noha Akugue Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Solana Sierra Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Thomas Faurel vs Jay Clarke Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Tyler: Edas Butvilas vs Andre Ilagan Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Centurion: Patrick Zahraj vs Giles Hussey Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Centurion: Arda Azkara vs Eliakim Coulibaly Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Heilbronn: Max Hans Rehberg vs Marvin Moeller Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Little Rock: Justin Boulais vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Elise Mertens Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Modena: Martina Trevisan vs Jennifer Ruggeri Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Lloyd Harris Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Marvin Moeller Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Cattolica: Pierluigi Basile vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Centurion: Orel Kimhi vs Giles Hussey Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Little Rock: Daniel Milavsky vs Tung-Lin Wu Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Heilbronn: Lorenzo Giustino vs Marko Topo Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva BUY Tommaso Compagnucci 31¢ $3 9m
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Valentin Royer BUY Valentin Royer 33¢ $6 13m
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Valentin Royer BUY Valentin Royer 31¢ $8 13m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 62¢ $9 32m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 61¢ $9 32m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 61¢ $10 32m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 61¢ $10 32m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 60¢ $9 32m
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 45¢ $29 58m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 52¢ $40 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 61¢ $39 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 61¢ $39 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar BUY Zizou Bergs 57¢ $8 2h
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 38¢ $21 4h
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 38¢ $7 6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli BUY Camilo Ugo Carabelli 33¢ $24 8h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 49¢ $27 9h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 48¢ $22 9h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone BUY Alex Molcan 59¢ $8 10h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone BUY Alex Molcan 57¢ $3 10h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar BUY Zizou Bergs 57¢ $4 12h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone BUY Alex Molcan 59¢ $41 12h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 21¢ $1 12h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 50¢ $3 13h
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Mariano Navone 47¢ $4 14h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 45¢ $15 14h
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Mariano Navone 47¢ $12 16h
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 48¢ $4 21h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 39¢ $1 23h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 54¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $359.10 · official $359.10 (match) · 3500 history records