Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:46:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
70 0x70f6…2328 world 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11 (-5%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% $0
other 23% −$11
economics 6% +$1
crypto 5% $0
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.7% -7.1% 50% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 7 -0.8% -10.3% 43% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 -0.8% -10.3% 43% 0% -9.4%
all 16 -6.0% -15.0% 56% 0% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 0% -13.6%
10% -23.1% 0% -21.9%
15% -30.6% 0% -29.4%
20% -37.4% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage455d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $5 −$1 -13%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $8 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend? May 28 $2 $0 +2%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Mar 29 $13 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 21 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $30 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 15h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $8 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $22 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 72¢ $22 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 72¢ $7 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $32 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $32 25d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $2 372d
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend? BUY No 98¢ $2 390d
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? BUY No 98¢ $12 406d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? BUY No 96¢ $13 437d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 74¢ $4 437d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 74¢ $9 437d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 74¢ $7 440d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 74¢ $6 440d
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? SELL No 84¢ $13 441d
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? BUY No 83¢ $13 443d
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? SELL No 100¢ $13 447d
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? BUY No 99¢ $13 449d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records