Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:29:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70f6…6924 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$180 (-12%) realized −$179 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$219
sports 10% +$12
crypto 7% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +9.3% -1.1% 69% 69% -18.2%
≤30d 16 +9.3% -1.1% 69% 69% -18.2%
≤90d 16 +9.3% -1.1% 69% 69% -18.2%
all 16 +9.3% -1.1% 69% 69% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 69% -18.2%
10% -10.6% 69% -26.0%
15% -19.2% 62% -33.2%
20% -27.1% 38% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$111 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized−$179
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $156 $155 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $96 +$62 +64%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $142 −$132 -93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $99 +$43 +44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $301 −$300 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $205 +$99 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $16 +$10 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$25 +49%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$31 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$12 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$12 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $158 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $158 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $96 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $142 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $99 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $301 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $304 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $178 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $178 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $27 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $16 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $75 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $51 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $31 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $18 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $33 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.79 · official $154.79 (match) · 36 history records