Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:46:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70f2…9e2b other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-9%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$6
sports 38% +$3
world 14% $0
tech 2% −$1
politics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -21.5% -29.0% 43% 43% -24.2%
≤30d 14 -21.5% -29.0% 43% 43% -24.2%
≤90d 14 -21.5% -29.0% 43% 43% -24.2%
all 14 -21.5% -29.0% 43% 43% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 43% -24.2%
10% -35.8% 43% -31.4%
15% -42.0% 43% -38.0%
20% -47.7% 29% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)14 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 94¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+83%)
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 56¢ 88¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 65¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Yes 58¢ 21¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 31¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Steve Garcia 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? No 73¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $3 +$1 +38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$4 +172%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $1 57m
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 59m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 0¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 10h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $3 10h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 72¢ $3 10h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $2 18h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 18h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $3 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 34h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 34h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 34h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 34h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 44h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $1 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 31¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.31 · official $9.31 (match) · 29 history records