Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

70
0x70ef…2108
world · 39 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$29 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$35 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$169
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Open positions4
Markets (closed)35 / 39
History coverage155d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 4 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 84¢ 87¢ $97 $100 +$3 (+3%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $49 $56 +$7 (+14%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 44¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-16%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 8PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the US strike Yemen next? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026? No 75¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - January 21, 8PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Kamala" this week? (February 8) No 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? May 31 $3 −$2 -54%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 13-19? May 23 $7 +$3 +37%
Will António José Seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port May 23 $10 +$1 +11%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026? May 23 $2 $0 +18%
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $1 $0 -44%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $4 +$4 +105%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Feb 17 $1 +$2 +200%
Will Trump say "Biden's War" this week? (February 8) Feb 08 $3 +$7 +248%
Will Trump say "Kamala" this week? (February 8) Feb 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? Jan 30 $9 −$3 -33%
Trump x Greenland deal signed by January 31? Jan 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026? Jan 30 $3 −$1 -34%
Will the US strike Yemen next? Jan 27 $0 $0 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jan 24 $40 −$12 -30%
Will Team Human or Team AI win the Aster trading competition? Jan 22 $5 +$2 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 8PM ET Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 21, 8PM ET Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US strike Syria next? Jan 21 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026? Jan 19 $6 $0 -3%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026? Jan 19 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 18, 2026? Jan 19 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Jan 18 $2 +$1 +30%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jan 18 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026? Jan 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 17 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 17 $23 −$10 -41%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Jan 17 $4 −$2 -44%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 17 $5 $0 -6%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jan 17 $6 $0 -4%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jan 16 $10 $0 -4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 13 $2 $0 -5%
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Jan 11 $2 $0 -4%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runof Jan 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 202 Jan 11 $1 $0 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 33% +$1
world 33% −$21
other 29% −$11
crypto 2% +$1
tech 1% +$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $50 6d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 84¢ $98 13d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 13d
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 61d
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $7 105d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 116d
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 121d
Will Trump say "Biden's War" this week? (February 8) SELL No 94¢ $9 125d
Will Trump say "Kamala" this week? (February 8) BUY No 16¢ $2 126d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 129d
Will Trump say "Biden's War" this week? (February 8) BUY No 27¢ $3 129d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 131d
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 134d
Trump x Greenland deal signed by January 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 134d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $2 134d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $3 137d
Will the US strike Yemen next? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 137d
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 138d
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 138d
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 138d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 139d
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? SELL No 28¢ $28 140d
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? BUY No 40¢ $40 140d
Will Team Human or Team AI win the Aster trading competition? SELL AI 67¢ $7 142d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 142d
Trump x Greenland deal signed by January 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 142d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 8PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 142d
Solana Up or Down - January 21, 8PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 142d
Will Team Human or Team AI win the Aster trading competition? BUY AI 52¢ $5 142d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +2.8% -7.0% 75% 75% -0.1%
≤90d 5 -6.5% -15.4% 60% 60% -1.7%
all 35 -7.7% -16.5% 34% 31% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 31% -22.1%
10% -24.5% 23% -29.6%
15% -31.8% 11% -36.4%
20% -38.5% 9% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.82 · official $168.82 (match) · 86 history records