Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:58:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

70
0x70ee…1e33
world · 32 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$10 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses9 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage481d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 2 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $44 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $14 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $33 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $33 +$1 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $29 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 180-189 times April 4 - 11? Apr 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be more than $6.00 in March? Apr 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 07 $13 $0 +1%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 29 $12 $0 -1%
Will Arizona win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Mar 26 $12 $0 +1%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Mar 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will St. John's win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $2 $0 +9%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $7 −$3 -41%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Mar 20 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Nancy Pelosi applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 04 $14 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on February Mar 04 $9 +$5 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 66% −$1
politics 13% +$1
other 11% −$15
finance 5% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $15 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $2 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $13 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $24 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $5 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $28 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $2 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 17h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $29 18h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 25h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 27h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 27h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $8 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $2 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $19 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $30 34h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $14 36h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $14 39h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 45h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $33 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $33 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $6 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $27 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $33 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $8 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $22 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $30 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $10 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $24 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 23% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 23% 0% -9.7%
all 30 -2.2% -11.5% 30% 3% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 3% -11.0%
10% -20.0% 3% -19.5%
15% -27.7% 3% -27.3%
20% -34.8% 3% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.58 · official $0.04 (match) · 98 history records