Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:45:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70e9…a9d5 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$752 (-43%) realized −$749 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$688
7 days−$990
14 days−$724
30 days−$783
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$209
sports 32% −$549
politics 3% −$2
world 3% −$57
crypto 3% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -27.7% -34.6% 33% 33% -79.0%
≤30d 17 +5.0% -5.0% 41% 41% -53.7%
≤90d 17 +5.0% -5.0% 41% 41% -53.7%
all 17 +5.0% -5.0% 41% 41% -53.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 41% -53.7%
10% -14.1% 41% -58.1%
15% -22.4% 35% -62.2%
20% -30.0% 29% -65.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$119 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$749
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage20d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $130 $127 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $214 −$214 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $45 +$31 +69%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$45 +225%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $509 −$509 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 18 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$57 +56%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$4 -73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 +$4 +383%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $22 +$10 +46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $165 +$257 +156%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 03 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 02 $59 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $132 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $99 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $76 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $20 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $45 16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 29¢ $20 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $70 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $40 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $100 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $300 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $10 3d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 71¢ $350 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $102 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $6 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $1 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 100¢ $32 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $422 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $165 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 67¢ $22 10d
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17d
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E BUY Yes 42¢ $57 18d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 83¢ $57 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.16 · official $127.16 (match) · 42 history records