Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:42:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70e8…e985 crypto 860 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$146 (-1%) realized −$146 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate82%704W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$186
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -8.6% -17.3% 22% 11% -17.3%
≤30d 37 -15.4% -23.5% 32% 8% -19.5%
≤90d 216 -18.5% -26.3% 55% 49% -13.9%
all 860 -5.5% -14.5% 82% 20% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 20% -11.0%
10% -22.6% 12% -19.5%
15% -30.1% 1% -27.3%
20% -37.0% 1% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$146
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses704 / 156
Open positions0
Markets (closed)860 / 860
History coverage104d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 860 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 29 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 29 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 28 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 28 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 28 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 28 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 28 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 28 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 28 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 28 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 28 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 28 $4 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 28 $6 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 28 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 28 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 28 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 07 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 07 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 07 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 07 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 07 $20 −$7 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 07 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 07 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 06 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 29 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $9 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $9 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2819 history records