Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
70 0x70e7…48b6 other 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate12%14W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$15
politics 29% −$11
sports 13% +$6
tech 4% −$1
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 66 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 116 -1.5% -10.9% 12% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 7% -9.6%
10% -19.4% 5% -18.2%
15% -27.2% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.3% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses14 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage130d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $195 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $185 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 24 $251 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $245 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $250 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $196 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $227 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $205 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $257 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $202 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $253 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $204 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $183 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $462 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $215 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $220 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $238 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $254 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $271 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $222 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $264 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $273 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $429 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,292 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $239 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $226 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $255 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $409 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 12 $240 $0 +0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $225 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $224 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $195 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $188 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 08 $271 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 07 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $692 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $495 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 06 $271 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $262 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $215 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 13h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 46h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 20d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 21d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $195 22d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $195 23d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $197 23d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $197 25d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $194 25d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $194 26d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $185 26d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $185 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $251 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $251 28d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $245 29d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $245 30d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $250 30d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $250 30d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $196 31d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $196 32d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $231 32d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $232 32d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $227 32d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $227 33d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $205 33d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $205 33d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $257 34d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $257 34d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $193 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.98 · official $37.98 (match) · 336 history records