Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:22:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

70 0x70e7…6325 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$10 (+47%) realized +$10 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip

Net edge+37%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown22%max

Avg bet$4per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+42.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+57.3%	+42.3%	67%	67%	+54.9%
≤30d	3	+57.3%	+42.3%	67%	67%	+54.9%
≤90d	3	+57.3%	+42.3%	67%	67%	+54.9%
all	3	+57.3%	+42.3%	67%	67%	+54.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+42.3%	67%	+54.9%
10%	+28.7%	67%	+40.1%
15%	+16.3%	33%	+26.6%
20%	+4.9%	33%	+14.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +71% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +57% · $-wt +71% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.68 per $1 lost it wins $5.68

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$8

Realized+$10

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$4

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown22%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	92¢	92¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$7	+$2	+22%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$4	+$10	+250%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$3	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$5	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$2	10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	51¢	$5	10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$3	10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$2	10h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$2	10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	28¢	$4	12h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.91 · official $7.91 (match) · 10 history records