Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:43:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
70 0x70e7…55d4 other 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,774 (+1%) realized +$1,773 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate19%26W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$1,498per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$680now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$17
14 days−$35
30 days−$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$725
politics 40% −$97
sports 10% +$1,103
culture 1% −$5
world 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$4
tech 1% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -8.9% -17.6% 3% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 90 -0.5% -10.0% 7% 4% -9.0%
all 138 +1.6% -8.1% 19% 14% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 14% -8.8%
10% -16.9% 14% -17.5%
15% -24.9% 13% -25.5%
20% -32.3% 12% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,724) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$10 · ×10.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.5 per $1 lost it wins $2.5
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$680
Realized+$1,773
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses26 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)138 / 140
History coverage128d
Avg bet$1,498
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $426 $427 +$1 (+0%)
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $253 $253 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $1,865 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $5,518 −$6 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,066 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,990 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,370 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $1,373 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,374 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2,755 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,602 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,423 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,521 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,615 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $3,855 −$4 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $1,654 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,310 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,648 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $974 +$3 +0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $695 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $1,907 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $4,568 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $4,386 −$5 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,420 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $1,639 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $4,466 −$5 -0%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $4,156 −$5 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $48 +$64 +134%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $5,552 −$7 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $8,875 −$10 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $1,350 −$2 -0%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 19 $1,674 +$1,277 +76%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $3,904 −$4 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,724 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $1,087 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $2,742 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 26 $1,570 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $1,552 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $1,539 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $2,911 −$3 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,686 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $4,994 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $253 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $339 4h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $339 6h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $947 3d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $948 4d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,049 4d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,050 4d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $872 4d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $874 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,047 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,049 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,064 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,066 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,343 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,345 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,368 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,370 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,371 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,373 8d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,372 8d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,374 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $426 11d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,600 11d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,602 12d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,599 12d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,602 12d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,603 12d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,605 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,519 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,521 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $679.82 · official $679.82 (match) · 460 history records