Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:16:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70e5…649c other 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$290 (+1%) realized +$86 · open +$204
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate56%23W / 18L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$374per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$4,379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$63
14 days+$78
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% +$43
other 27% +$198
world 17% +$46
tech 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -36.7% -42.7% 40% 20% -33.8%
≤30d 7 -24.4% -31.6% 57% 14% -6.8%
≤90d 30 -28.6% -35.4% 47% 13% -9.9%
all 41 -21.3% -28.8% 56% 15% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 15% -9.1%
10% -35.6% 5% -17.8%
15% -41.8% 5% -25.8%
20% -47.5% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$629) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$51 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$4,379
Realized+$86
Unrealized+$204
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses23 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions16
Markets (closed)41 / 57
History coverage119d
Avg bet$374
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $1,627 $1,732 +$105 (+6%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $1,124 $1,151 +$27 (+2%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 84¢ $234 $253 +$19 (+8%)
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $188 $190 +$2 (+1%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 81¢ 91¢ $162 $182 +$20 (+12%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $152 $151 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $112 $109 −$4 (-3%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 99¢ $89 $99 +$10 (+11%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 96¢ $81 $96 +$15 (+19%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 88¢ $93 $88 −$5 (-5%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 86¢ $71 $86 +$14 (+20%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 84¢ $87 $84 −$2 (-3%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 78¢ $88 $78 −$9 (-11%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $66 $77 +$11 (+17%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 43¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $78 −$7 -8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $47 +$3 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $42 +$8 +18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 Jun 04 $1,012 +$88 +9%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i Jun 04 $1,364 +$53 +4%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? May 17 $198 −$90 -46%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 17 $108 +$292 +270%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 May 15 $2,156 +$28 +1%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 12 $196 −$194 -99%
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United May 11 $384 +$16 +4%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 A May 04 $372 +$12 +3%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Apr 30 $1,461 −$53 -4%
Will the All India N.R. Congress (AINRC) win the most seats in the 202 Apr 29 $71 −$2 -2%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Apr 21 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgaria Apr 21 $702 +$46 +6%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Apr 08 $1,409 +$54 +4%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 07 $892 −$89 -10%
Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 31 $1,200 +$32 +3%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026? Mar 25 $66 +$9 +14%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? Mar 25 $72 +$27 +37%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Mar 25 $1,165 +$68 +6%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 18 $1,076 +$124 +12%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Electi Mar 16 $135 +$9 +6%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $959 +$61 +6%
Will Communist Party of Nepal (UML) win the third-most seats in the Ne Mar 13 $77 +$6 +8%
Will CD win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate electio Mar 10 $186 +$14 +8%
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parli Mar 09 $168 −$136 -81%
Will John Cornyn win the first round of the Republican Senate primary Mar 08 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 06 $95 +$15 +16%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 06 $87 −$3 -3%
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand? Mar 03 $629 +$10 +2%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of February Feb 28 $269 +$8 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $0 8m
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $33 1h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 1h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 1h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 2h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $71 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 4d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 88¢ $217 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $76 4d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 88¢ $656 4d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 88¢ $43 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 85¢ $42 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 93¢ $47 4d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 88¢ $7 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 5d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 88¢ $73 5d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 88¢ $59 5d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 8d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $28 8d
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $57 8d
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $10 8d
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $15 8d
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $8 8d
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $76 8d
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $81 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $26 9d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $212 9d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 9d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $7 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,378.52 · official $4,378.42 (match) · 301 history records