Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
70 0x70e3…eebf crypto 1128 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$67 (+2%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate73%828W / 300L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day28.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$9
14 days+$13
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 214 +0.3% -9.3% 63% 35% -10.8%
≤30d 612 +1.6% -8.0% 63% 42% -8.8%
≤90d 1128 +1.7% -8.0% 73% 52% -9.8%
all 1128 +1.7% -8.0% 73% 52% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 52% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 16% -18.4%
15% -24.8% 10% -26.3%
20% -32.2% 8% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses828 / 300
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1128 / 1128
History coverage48d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day28.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1128 Trades
no open positions (71 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 26h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 26h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2206 history records